In 2022, gambling covers a vast and varied landscape with many different methods and techniques. In this article, we’ll take a look at value betting.
In 2022, the global gambling industry is worth a staggering $565 billion with more options available to customers than ever before. While some of this revenue comes from high rollers visiting big city casinos and dropping the big bucks, some also comes from regular people betting a few quid here and there on the horses or on their favorite football teams.
Sports betting is one of the world’s most popular forms of gambling these days – particularly with the advent of in-game betting whereby punters can place bets on a team or player up to the final moments of a match or event. Every week, sports fans place bets on local and national events and, as we gear up to the next football World Cup tournament in November, footie fans have already been placing their bets on who they think will emerge as champions (spoiler; current odds have Brazil as favorite, followed by England).
Keen gamblers can choose from a variety of different ways of gambling, including visiting a real life casino, strolling down to a local bookmakers or, taking advantage of any number of online betting sites, such as HotSlots online kaszino. With these different methods of gambling comes a wide variety of techniques – some of which you may be aware of and, others which are less known but no less effective for the keen gambler. In this article, we’re going to be taking a closer look at one of these emerging gambling trends – value betting.
What is value betting?
An extremely systematic approach to gambling, value betting is all about trying to gain a better percentage of return than the expected or perceived risk. Sounds simple right? Not really. This method of gambling can be quite complicated and is something which requires some mathematical skills (or a really good piece of software which can do the sums for you). So, buckle up and we’ll shine a light on this increasingly popular type of gambling:
To begin with, in order to get to grips with value betting, you need to gain a fairly in depth understanding of a team’s probability of winning and the corresponding odds – the latter refers to the price that a bookmaker or site is prepared to pay for a winning bet. In essence, this works in a fairly straightforward way – the better chance a team has of winning, the lower the odds; for example, a team which is favorite to win, will have lower odds – which means that the bookmaker will have to fork out less money to winners.
An example of odds may be 2.4 – this means that a bookmaker will hand over 2.4 times the amount of money that a customer has bet, in the event of a win. Bookmakers work out odds by starting off with a set margin, for example 5%. They will then work out odds for a number of different outcomes for a match or event by using algorithms and historic results. The bookie will then subtract their margin to produce odds for the event.
Finding true value
Obviously, bookmakers and betting sites don’t have a crystal ball and are, therefore, unable to predict everything which may happen during a sporting event – for example; an own goal or the star of a team being injured. This is why odds are simply based on probability – i.e. an educated guess as to what might happen based on the information available and past results for a team or a player.
So, back to value betting. Within a traditional bet, the odds offered by a bookmaker will more or less mirror the actual, real life likelihood of a particular outcome. With a value bet, the likelihood of the outcome is higher, or better, than the bookmaker’s odds would suggest. For the gambler, this translates to a better chance of winning more cash.
How’s it done?
This is where things get a bit tricky as getting to grips with value betting takes a bit of work as well as some analytical skills. In order to be able to identify a value bet, you need to be able to do the following:
- Calculate the implied probability
- Calculate the true probability
- Work out the fair odds
- Use this to create a formula with which to calculate the expected return
Experienced value bettors do this in one of two ways as follows:
This method involves performing a technical analysis of all of the betting factors, including movements and comparisons of average pricing, on the assumption that the average pricing is pretty close to the fair odds. This analysis is then used to come up with a realistic picture for a possible value bet. This method will usually require the gambler to get hold of some betting software such as RebelBetting which will aid them in finding the sweet spot when it comes to value betting.
Best suited to uber-fans of a particular sport or event, fundamental analysis works best for those with an in-depth knowledge of their chosen sport. Why ? Fundamental analysis involves examining every aspect of a particular team and / or player, including:
- Match data – How many matches have been won / lost against certain opponents
- Shots – How many shots a team takes on average during a match
- Passes – How many passes a team makes during a match
- Manager – How much success a team’s manager has had
- Training – How a player performs during training
- Conditions – How a team or player performs during certain conditions, for example, different types of pitch and different kinds of weather
Experienced value bettors will also factor in psychological aspects, for example, how rival teams perceive one another or aspects of a player’s personal life which may affect his or her performance.
If you’re looking for a straightforward value betting formula, the value of a bet is equal to its probability and then multiplied by the decimal odds, minus one – if, after this calculator, the value is greater than zero, you’ve got yourself a value bet.
While this may seem complicated – and a lot of work, it tends to be lot easier if you’re actually passionate about a sport as you’ll already have the knowledge, and won’t find it a chore to put in the legwork to find a value bet which will pad out your bank account while allowing you to enjoy one of your favourite activities. In fact, many well known names, including Warren Buffet, are big fans of value betting due to the level of analysis and skill involved.
Value betting is a good way of increasing your chances of winning more cash when having a flutter but, like any other method, it’s far from foolproof. The reason that bookmakers and betting sites stay in business is that they make more cash than they pay out to punters. Responsible gambling is a good habit to get into in general and, if you decide to try your hand at value betting, it’s really important that you take the time to practice and hone your skills before gambling a significant amount of cash.